(Photo by Bleacher Report)
Although I am not forcing you to take part, draft season for fantasy football is underway, and many of you might create your rankings or look at draft analyses to see which players are suitable for your team. Unfortunately, the expertise may not be available at what is arguably the most prominent football site, NFL.com.
Apparently, after having learned their lessons from giving a crap about Jimmy Graham as a viable tight end and Eddie Lacy as a productive running back, its so-called experts, Michael Fabiano and James Koh, are trying to convince you that Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman will likely fail. You would think that a running back that rushed and caught for 1634 yards and fourteen touchdowns would be given high praise for his work as a second-year player.
According to “Fabs” and Koh, Freeman might bust because of a player that will cause him to fear for his job, his backup Tevin Coleman. Despite the fact that Coleman was deemed an impatient, choppy-footed runner that had no elusiveness and played with too high of a pad level to welcome unnecessary tackles, both analysts seem to fear for Freeman’s job more than Freeman does.
Unlike Freeman, Coleman also needed to improve his receiving out of the backfield and had ball security problems. Based on his pro opportunities, Coleman has not exactly been better at those areas. He only caught two passes out of eleven targets thrown to him last season, and filling in for Freeman did not exactly lead to a lineup change.
When Freeman experienced a concussion versus the Indianapolis Colts, Coleman produced what Fabiano and Koh deemed Hall of Fame worthy, 48 rushing yards on seventeen carries and a lost fumble. With Freeman ruled out against the Minnesota Vikings the following week, Coleman made up for his prior mistake by rushing for 110 yards on eighteen carries but repeated history by yet losing another fumble.
To even consider Coleman as a fantasy option is a bigger joke than Fabiano’s Start ’Em, Sit ’Em columns listing players with high scoring projections as sit-worthy despite you cutting them weeks beforehand. Any NFL.com analysis on Coleman is nothing more than Fabiano and Koh relying on a leap of faith. Worst of all, as these two alleged geniuses seem to make fantasy points only about touchdowns, if you were trying to project one player as a breakout second-year player based on rookie statistics, the edge would go to Freeman.
Devonta Freeman: 473 yards from scrimmage, two touchdowns, and two fumbles (one lost) in 243 snaps.
Tevin Coleman: 406 yards from scrimmage, one touchdown, and six fumbles (three lost) in 226 snaps.
If you tripled their snaps, Freeman would still gain 200 yards more than and twice as many touchdowns as Coleman while Coleman would triple the fumbles and lost balls that Freeman would have. That cannot help in fantasy.
Sure, Freeman produced a small number of touchdowns and fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in his final five games, but there is never any discussion about any offensive predictability caused by nepotism (Kyle Shanahan) or a threat scarcity outside of Freeman and Julio Jones making Freeman vulnerable to more tackles. Further worsening “expert” credibility is there being no analysis of Mohamed Sanu’s arrival to free up greater running room for Freeman. Consequently, such a lack of insight makes people like Fabiano and Koh nothing more than random Joe’s passed off as virtuosos. If I am wrong, why did Fabiano rate Coleman ahead of Freeman before last season?
Unlike them, at least I use sensible statistics like yards from scrimmage. In addition, I show you that touchdowns are hard to come by and only achievable when your player has to keep gaining yards to get closer to the end zone. Even though I had no viable statistics on Coleman before last year, I, unlike the experts, still used scouting analysis on Coleman and Freeman. I also used to analysis to conclude “as someone who, like others, was not high on [Coleman] when he came out of Indiana, I would have more faith in Freeman.”
However, with credentials determining full credibility and websites unwilling to admit mistakes, Fabiano and Koh are, pretty much, allowed base projections on nothing. With this, they push you to only have 20-yard players with a touchdown for eight fantasy points when you could be turning down a 100-yard per game player that gives you ten, a higher number than eight.
Frankly, if you are going to draft, you are better off listening to me. Based on this disgusting obsession over the inept and unproven Coleman, my anecdotal analyses of the Cleveland Browns defense, Crockett Gillmore, LeSean McCoy, and Ted Ginn Jr. make me worthy enough to replace Fabiano and Koh. If not, never fall for “experts.” When they face no accountability for anything wrong they have done, you might as well trust your own gut, especially when their guts likely drive their analyses.